Phillip G. Armour
- Boehm, B. et al. Cost Estimation with COCOMO II. Prentice-Hall, 2000. Google Scholar
Digital Library
Index Terms
- Counting boulders and measuring mountains
Recommendations
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Reviews
James M. Perry
This is an insightful article with an important message. In 1856, the British estimated Mt. Everest to be 29,000 feet high, but adjusted the estimate to 29,002 feet to avoid any impression of inaccuracy. Building on this story, the article contrasts two basic approaches to software project estimation: task- and scope-based estimation. Task-based estimation of effort, schedules, and staff is the typical approach used by project managers for larger projects. It produces estimates as a result of detailed project management planning that identifies detailed tasks, task dependencies, and task structure. This approach delays the estimates until enough planning has been performed, and, because it is based on detailed planning, may incorrectly suggest greater precision in the estimates. Scope-based estimation is the typical approach used by software engineers to first obtain a size estimate that is then used to derive resource estimates. This approach is quicker, but more difficult to formalize. Moreover, small changes in scope may result in larger, often exponentially larger, changes in results. Thus, scope estimates should be stated as ranges, to convey the inherent uncertainty in performing software development. This article is not a formal technical paper on software measurement, but it is clearly motivated by practical experience. Its insights and lessons are missed or forgotten by too many project managers. It should be required reading for every software engineering and project management class. In an interesting footnote, we learn the actual (2006) height for Mt. Everest is 29,035 feet. Online Computing Reviews Service
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