Steven Jackson
ABSTRACT
Computer simulation models have emerged in recent decades as increasingly prominent technologies within the toolkit of modern democratic governance. Despite and/or because of this centrality, however, formerly 'technical' domains of modeling have been opened up to new forms of public debate, scrutiny and critique, with uncertain policy consequences. This paper traces such dynamics through one field of contemporary relevance: the joint evolution of simulation models and water management in California. Rather than decrying the politicization or debasement of expertise, I argue that broadening the deliberative basis of model design and use is likely to improve both the technical and political functioning of models. The paper concludes by sketching a model of 'virtual accountability' meant to inform the actions of future model builders, users, and stakeholders in contested realms of public policy.
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Index Terms
- Water models and water politics: design, deliberation, and virtual accountability
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Reviews
Barrett Hazeltine
The issue considered here is the political legitimacy of a computer simulation model whose "inner workings remained opaque to all but the smallest handful of the initiated." The case discussed is about a water resource model in California, called CalSim, which was produced by a government agency. The use of the model had major economic implications, because developers and local planners were required to show the reliability of their future water supplies, and only CalSim could do this. CalSim, on its release, met with scorn and political resistance, partly because its forecasts predicted a future easing of water shortages, despite evident increased demand. Continuing efforts were made to both improve the model, and to make it more transparent. The process of making the model more transparent improved it technically; here, the political process did not debase scientific work. Remaining technical difficulties were easier to fix, however, than gaining public trust. Recommendations for developers of simulation models used in the public arena are given. Model builders need to do more to create public access to their tools and results. Public officials need to become more literate in modeling. Modelers must realize that gaining acceptance must be an integral part of the design. Research needs to be done on addressing the political and sociological aspects of model building. Some useful observations are made about computer simulation models, especially challenges in testing them. The paper addresses an important problem, but the exposition is complex. Online Computing Reviews Service
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