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Estimation of percentiles of cycle time in manufacturing simulation

Published: 04 December 2005 Publication History

Abstract

Cycle time-throughput (CT-TH) percentile curves quantify the relationship between percentiles of cycle time and factory throughput, and they can play an important role in strategic planning for manufacturing systems. In this paper, a highly flexible distribution, the generalized gamma, is used to represent the underlying distribution of cycle time. To obtain CT-TH percentile curves, we fit metamodels for the first three CT-TH moment curves throughout the throughput range of interest, determine the parameters of the generalized gamma by matching moments, and obtain percentiles by inverting the distribution. To insure efficiency and control estimation error, simulation experiments are built up sequentially using a multistage procedure. Numerical results are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach.

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Yang, F., B. E. Ankenman, and B. L. Nelson. 2005. Estimation of cycle-time percentile curves in manufacturing simulation. Working paper, Department of Industrial Engineering & Management Sciences, Northwestern University, Evanston, Illinois.

Cited By

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  • (2006)Indirect cycle-time quantile estimation for non-FIFO dispatching policiesProceedings of the 38th conference on Winter simulation10.5555/1218112.1218444(1829-1835)Online publication date: 3-Dec-2006

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cover image ACM Conferences
WSC '05: Proceedings of the 37th conference on Winter simulation
December 2005
2769 pages
ISBN:0780395190

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Winter Simulation Conference

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Published: 04 December 2005

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WSC '05 Paper Acceptance Rate 209 of 316 submissions, 66%;
Overall Acceptance Rate 3,413 of 5,075 submissions, 67%

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  • (2006)Indirect cycle-time quantile estimation for non-FIFO dispatching policiesProceedings of the 38th conference on Winter simulation10.5555/1218112.1218444(1829-1835)Online publication date: 3-Dec-2006

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