Integration study of prospective hazards models for the enhancement of a virtual range simulation model

This paper describes our progresses toward enhancing a Virtual Range (VR) for space launch modeling capability. The VR discussed in this paper is a range safety simulation environment. It is capable of determining the expectation of casualties (E_c) resulting from the toxic effects of gas dispersion caused by a failed space launch and subsequent explosion (accidental or instructed) of a spacecraft (the Space Shuttle in this instance) shortly after liftoff. In addition to the above, we are currently rendering the VR capable of also determining the E_c resulting from falling debris and blast overpressure propagation, which are the others two major hazards resulting from a spacecraft explosion. We also investigate two data fusion approaches to estimate the E_c resulting from the combined effects of the three hazards mentioned above, as their effects may not necessarily be independent of each other.