skip to main content
10.5555/1218112.1218136acmconferencesArticle/Chapter ViewAbstractPublication PageswscConference Proceedingsconference-collections
Article

White noise assumptions revisited: regression metamodels and experimental designs in practice

Published: 03 December 2006 Publication History

Abstract

Classic linear regression metamodels and their concomitant experimental designs assume a univariate (not multivariate) simulation response and white noise. By definition, white noise is normally (Gaussian), independently (implying no common random numbers), and identically (constant variance) distributed with zero mean (valid metamodel). This advanced tutorial tries to answer the following questions: (i) How realistic are these classic assumptions in simulation practice? (ii) How can these assumptions be tested? (iii) If assumptions are violated, can the simulation's I/O data be transformed such that the analysis becomes correct? (iv) If such transformations cannot be applied, which alternative statistical methods (for example, generalized least squares, bootstrapping, jackknifing) can then be applied?

References

[1]
Angün, E., D. den Hertog, G. Gürkan, and J. P. C. Kleijnen. 2006. Response surface methodology with stochastic constrains for expensive simulation. Working Paper, Tilburg University, Tilburg, Netherlands.]]
[2]
Arcones, M. A., and Y. Wang. 2006. Some new tests for normality based on U-processes. Statistics & Probability Letters 76(1): 69--82.]]
[3]
Atkinson, A., and M. Riani. 2000. Robust diagnostic regression analysis. New York: Springer.]]
[4]
Ayanso, A., M. Diaby, and S. K. Nair. 2006. Inventory rationing via drop-shipping in Internet retailing: a sensitivity analysis. European Journal of Operational Research 171(1): 135--152.]]
[5]
Breukers, A. 2006. Bio-economic modelling of brown rot in the Dutch potato production chain. Doctoral dissertation, Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands.]]
[6]
Conover, W. J. 1980. Practical nonparametric statistics, second edition. New York: Wiley:]]
[7]
Conover, W. J., and R. L. Iman. 1981. Rank transformations as a bridge between parametric and nonparametric statistics. The American Statistician 35(3): 124--133.]]
[8]
Davidson, R., and J. G. MacKinnon. 2006. Improving the reliability of bootstrap tests with the fast double bootstrap. Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, in press.]]
[9]
Davison, A. C., and D. V. Hinkley. 1997. Bootstrap methods and their application. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.]]
[10]
Dykstra, R. L. 1970. Establishing the positive definiteness of the sample covariance matrix. The Annals of Mathematical Statistics 41(6): 2153--2154.]]
[11]
Efron, B., and R. J. Tibshirani. 1993. An introduction to the bootstrap. New York: Chapman & Hall.]]
[12]
Freeman, J., and R. Modarres. 2006. Inverse Box Cox: the power-normal distribution. Statistics & Probability Letters 76(8): 764--772.]]
[13]
Godfrey, L. G. 2006. Tests for regression models with heteroskedasticity of unknown form. Computational Statistics & Data Analysis 50(10): 2715--2733.]]
[14]
Good, P. I. 2005. Resampling methods: a practical guide to data analysis, third edition. Boston: Birkhäuser.]]
[15]
Helton, J. C., J. D. Johnson, C. J. Sallaberry, and C. B. Storlie. 2006. Survey of sampling-based methods for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Reliability Engineering and Systems Safety, in press.]]
[16]
Ivanescu, C., W. Bertrand, J. Fransoo, and J. P. C. Kleijnen. 2006. Bootstrapping to solve the limited data problem in production control: an application in batch processing industries. Journal of the Operational Research Society 57(1): 2--9.]]
[17]
Kleijnen, J. P. C. 1987. Statistical tools for simulation practitioners. New York: Marcel Dekker.]]
[18]
Kleijnen, J. P. C. 1992. Regression metamodels for simulation with common random numbers: comparison of validation tests and confidence intervals. Management Science 38(8): 1164--1185.]]
[19]
Kleijnen, J. P. C. 1993. Simulation and optimization in production planning: a case study. Decision Support Systems 9: 269--280.]]
[20]
Kleijnen, J. P. C. 1995. Sensitivity analysis and optimization of system dynamics models: regression analysis and statistical design of experiments. System Dynamics Review 11(4): 275--288.]]
[21]
Kleijnen, J. P. C. 2006. Regression models and experimental designs: a tutorial for simulation analysts. CentER Discussion Paper, number 2006--10.]]
[22]
Kleijnen, J. P. C. 2007. DASE: design and analysis of simulation experiments. Springer Science + Business Media.]]
[23]
Kleijnen, J. P. C., R. C. H. Cheng, and B. Bettovil. 2001. Validation of trace-driven simulation models: bootstrapped tests. Management Science 47(11): 1533--1538.]]
[24]
Kleijnen, J. P. C., P. Cremers, and F. van Belle. 1985. The power of weighted and ordinary least squares with estimated unequal variances in experimental designs. Communications in Statistics, Simulation and Computation 14(1): 85--102.]]
[25]
Kleijnen, J. P. C., and D. Deflandre. 2006. Validation of regression metamodels in simulation: bootstrap approach.European Journal of Operational Research 170(1): 120--131.]]
[26]
Kleijnen, J. P. C., and J. Helton. 1999. Statistical analyses of scatter plots to identify important factors in large-scale simulations, 1: review and comparison of techniques. Reliability Engineering and Systems Safety 65(2): 147--185.]]
[27]
Kleijnen, J. P. C., P. C. A. Karremans, W. K. Oortwijn, and W. J. H. van Groenendaal. 1987. Jackknifing estimated weighted least squares: JEWLS. Communications in Statistics, Theory and Methods 16(3): 747--764.]]
[28]
Kleijnen, J. P. C., J. Kriens, H. Timmermans, and H. Van den Wildenberg. 1989. Regression sampling in statistical auditing: a practical survey and evaluation (including Rejoinder). Statistica Neerlandica 43(4): 193--207 (225).]]
[29]
Kleijnen, J. P. C., and W. C. M. van Beers. 2004. Application-driven sequential designs for simulation experiments: Kriging metamodeling. Journal of the Operational Research Society 55(9): 876--883.]]
[30]
Kleijnen, J. P. C., and W. van Groenendaal. 1992. Simulation: a statistical perspective. Chichester (England): John Wiley.]]
[31]
Kleijnen, J. P. C., and W. van Groenendaal. 1995. Twostage versus sequential sample-size determination in regression analysis of simulation experiments. American Journal of Mathematical and Management Sciences 15(1&2): 83--114.]]
[32]
Kleijnen, J. P. C., G. van Ham, and J. Rotmans. 1992. Techniques for sensitivity analysis of simulation models: a case study of the CO2 greenhouse effect. Simulation 58(6): 410--417.]]
[33]
Law, A. M., and W. D. Kelton. 2000. Simulation modeling and analysis, third edition. Boston: McGraw-Hill.]]
[34]
Lehmann, E. L. 1999. Elements of large-sample theory. New York: Springer.]]
[35]
Lunneborg, C. E. 2000. Data analysis by resampling: concepts and applications. Pacific Grove, California: Duxbury Press.]]
[36]
Rao, C. R. 1959. Some problems involving linear hypothesis in multivariate analysis. Biometrika 46: 49--58.]]
[37]
Rao, C. R. 1967. Least squares theory using an estimated dispersion matrix and its application to measurement of signals. In Proceedings of the Fifth Berkeley Symposium on Mathematical Statistics and Probability 1, 355--372.]]
[38]
Ruud, P. A. 2000. An introduction to classical econometric theory. New York: Oxford University Press.]]
[39]
Salibian-Barrera, M. 2006. Bootstrapping MM-estimators for linear regression with fixed designs. Statistics & Probability Letters, in press.]]
[40]
Saltelli, A., and I. M. Sobol. 1995. About the use of rank transformation in sensitivity analysis of model output. Reliability Engineering and System Safety 50: 225--239.]]
[41]
Simpson, T. W., A. J. Booker, D. Ghosh, A. A. Giunta, P. N. Koch, and R.-J. Yang. 2004. Approximation methods in multidisciplinary analysis and optimization: a panel discussion. Structural and Multidisciplinary Optimization 27(5): 302--313.]]
[42]
Van Beers, W. C. M., and J. P. C. Kleijnen. 2006. Customized sequential designs for random simulation experiments: Kriging metamodeling and bootstrapping. Working Paper, Tilburg University, Tilburg, Netherlands.]]
[43]
Wu, C. F. J., and M. Hamada. 2000. Experiments; planning, analysis, and parameter design optimization. New York: Wiley.]]

Cited By

View all
  • (2017)First Investigations on Noisy Model-Based Multi-objective Optimization9th International Conference on Evolutionary Multi-Criterion Optimization - Volume 1017310.1007/978-3-319-54157-0_21(298-313)Online publication date: 19-Mar-2017
  • (2007)Regression models and experimental designsProceedings of the 39th conference on Winter simulation: 40 years! The best is yet to come10.5555/1351542.1351580(183-194)Online publication date: 9-Dec-2007
  1. White noise assumptions revisited: regression metamodels and experimental designs in practice

      Recommendations

      Comments

      Information & Contributors

      Information

      Published In

      cover image ACM Conferences
      WSC '06: Proceedings of the 38th conference on Winter simulation
      December 2006
      2429 pages
      ISBN:1424405017

      Sponsors

      • IIE: Institute of Industrial Engineers
      • ASA: American Statistical Association
      • IEICE ESS: Institute of Electronics, Information and Communication Engineers, Engineering Sciences Society
      • IEEE-CS\DATC: The IEEE Computer Society
      • SIGSIM: ACM Special Interest Group on Simulation and Modeling
      • NIST: National Institute of Standards and Technology
      • (SCS): The Society for Modeling and Simulation International
      • INFORMS-CS: Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences-College on Simulation

      Publisher

      Winter Simulation Conference

      Publication History

      Published: 03 December 2006

      Check for updates

      Qualifiers

      • Article

      Conference

      WSC06
      Sponsor:
      • IIE
      • ASA
      • IEICE ESS
      • IEEE-CS\DATC
      • SIGSIM
      • NIST
      • (SCS)
      • INFORMS-CS
      WSC06: Winter Simulation Conference 2006
      December 3 - 6, 2006
      California, Monterey

      Acceptance Rates

      WSC '06 Paper Acceptance Rate 177 of 252 submissions, 70%;
      Overall Acceptance Rate 3,413 of 5,075 submissions, 67%

      Contributors

      Other Metrics

      Bibliometrics & Citations

      Bibliometrics

      Article Metrics

      • Downloads (Last 12 months)7
      • Downloads (Last 6 weeks)3
      Reflects downloads up to 07 Mar 2025

      Other Metrics

      Citations

      Cited By

      View all
      • (2017)First Investigations on Noisy Model-Based Multi-objective Optimization9th International Conference on Evolutionary Multi-Criterion Optimization - Volume 1017310.1007/978-3-319-54157-0_21(298-313)Online publication date: 19-Mar-2017
      • (2007)Regression models and experimental designsProceedings of the 39th conference on Winter simulation: 40 years! The best is yet to come10.5555/1351542.1351580(183-194)Online publication date: 9-Dec-2007

      View Options

      Login options

      View options

      PDF

      View or Download as a PDF file.

      PDF

      eReader

      View online with eReader.

      eReader

      Figures

      Tables

      Media

      Share

      Share

      Share this Publication link

      Share on social media