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Experimental evaluation of integrated path estimators

Published: 03 December 2006 Publication History

Abstract

We describe the results of numerical experiments evaluating the efficiency of variance estimators based on integrated sample paths. The idea behind the estimators is to compute a vector of integrated paths and combine them to form an estimator of the time-average variance constant that is used, for example, in the construction of confidence intervals. When used in conjunction with batching, the approach generalizes the method of non-overlapping batch means. Compared with non-overlapping batch means, the estimators require longer to compute, have smaller variance and larger bias. We show that for long enough simulation run lengths, the efficiency (the reciprocal of running time multiplied by mean-squared error) of integrated path estimators can be much greater than that of non-overlapping batch means; the numerical experiments show an efficiency improvement by up to a factor of ten.

References

[1]
Alexopoulos, C., N. Argon, D. Goldsman, N. Steiger, G. Tokol, and J. Wilson. 2005. Efficient computation of overlapping variance estimators for simulation. INFORMS Journal on Computing. To appear.
[2]
Billingsley, P. 1999. Convergence of Probability Measures. Second ed. New York: John Wiley & Sons.
[3]
Calvin, J. M. 2005. Simulation output analysis using integrated paths. Available online via <http://web.njit.edu/~calvin/intpath.pdf> {accessed August 11, 2006}.
[4]
Chien, C., D. Goldsman, and B. Melamed. 1997. Large-sample results for batch means. Management Science 43:1288--1295.
[5]
Law, A. M., and W. D. Kelton. 2000. Simulation modeling and analysis. Third ed. New York: McGraw-Hill.

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Published In

cover image ACM Conferences
WSC '06: Proceedings of the 38th conference on Winter simulation
December 2006
2429 pages
ISBN:1424405017

Sponsors

  • IIE: Institute of Industrial Engineers
  • ASA: American Statistical Association
  • IEICE ESS: Institute of Electronics, Information and Communication Engineers, Engineering Sciences Society
  • IEEE-CS\DATC: The IEEE Computer Society
  • SIGSIM: ACM Special Interest Group on Simulation and Modeling
  • NIST: National Institute of Standards and Technology
  • (SCS): The Society for Modeling and Simulation International
  • INFORMS-CS: Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences-College on Simulation

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Winter Simulation Conference

Publication History

Published: 03 December 2006

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WSC06
Sponsor:
  • IIE
  • ASA
  • IEICE ESS
  • IEEE-CS\DATC
  • SIGSIM
  • NIST
  • (SCS)
  • INFORMS-CS
WSC06: Winter Simulation Conference 2006
December 3 - 6, 2006
California, Monterey

Acceptance Rates

WSC '06 Paper Acceptance Rate 177 of 252 submissions, 70%;
Overall Acceptance Rate 3,413 of 5,075 submissions, 67%

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