Predicting criminal relationships using multivariate survival analysis

ABSTRACT

Criminal networks evolve over time with the formation and dissolution of links to survive control efforts by government authorities. Previous studies have shown that the link formation process in such networks is influenced by a set of facilitators. However, there have been few empirical evaluations to determine the significant facilitators. In this study, we used dynamic social network analysis methods to examine several plausible link formation facilitators in a large-scale real-world narcotics network. Multivariate Cox regression showed that mutual acquaintance and vehicle affiliations were significant facilitators in the network under study. The findings shown in this poster can help government authorities automatically predict co-offending relationships in future crimes.

REFERENCES

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INDEX TERMS

Primary Classification:
  J. Computer Applications
  J.4 SOCIAL AND BEHAVIORAL SCIENCES
      Subjects: Sociology

General Terms:
Measurement

Keywords:
criminal networks, intelligence and security informatics, social network analysis