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Development of a simulation model of colorectal cancer

Published: 12 December 2007 Publication History

Abstract

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is deadly if not found early. Any protocols developed for screening and surveillance and any policy decisions regarding the availability of CRC resources should consider the nature of the disease and its impact over time on costs and quality-adjusted life years in a population. Simulation models can provide a flexible representation needed for such analysis; however, the development of a credible simulation model of the natural history of CRC is hindered by limited data and incomplete knowledge. To accommodate the extensive modeling and remodeling required to produce a credible model, we created an object-oriented simulation platform driven by a model-independent database within the .NET environment. The object-oriented structure not only encapsulated the needs of a simulation replication but created an extensible framework for specialization of the CRC components. This robust framework allowed development to focus modeling on the CRC events and their event relationships, conveniently facilitating extensive revision during model construction. As a second-generation CRC modeling activity, this model development benefited from prior experience with data sources and modeling difficulties. A graphical user interface makes the model accessible by displaying existing scenarios, showing input variables and their values, and permitting the creation of new scenarios and changes to its input. Output from the simulation is captured in familiar tabbed worksheets and stored in the database. The eventual CRC model was conceptualized through a series of assumptions that conformed to beliefs and data regarding the natural history of CRC. Throughout the development cycle, extensive verification and validation calibrated the model. The result is a simulation model that characterizes the natural history of CRC with sufficient accuracy to provide an effective means of evaluating numerous issues regarding the burden of this disease on individuals and society. Generalizations from this study are offered regarding the use of discrete-event simulation in disease modeling and medical decision making.

Supplementary Material

Roberts Appendix (a4-roberts-apndx.pdf)
Online appendix to designing mediation for context-aware applications. The appendix supports the information on article 4.

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cover image ACM Transactions on Modeling and Computer Simulation
ACM Transactions on Modeling and Computer Simulation  Volume 18, Issue 1
December 2007
108 pages
ISSN:1049-3301
EISSN:1558-1195
DOI:10.1145/1315575
Issue’s Table of Contents
Permission to make digital or hard copies of all or part of this work for personal or classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or distributed for profit or commercial advantage and that copies bear this notice and the full citation on the first page. Copyrights for components of this work owned by others than ACM must be honored. Abstracting with credit is permitted. To copy otherwise, or republish, to post on servers or to redistribute to lists, requires prior specific permission and/or a fee. Request permissions from [email protected]

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Publication History

Published: 12 December 2007
Accepted: 01 March 2007
Revised: 01 January 2007
Received: 01 September 2006
Published in TOMACS Volume 18, Issue 1

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Author Tags

  1. Medical applications
  2. colorectal cancer
  3. medical decision making

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