skip to main content
10.5555/1351542.1351814acmconferencesArticle/Chapter ViewAbstractPublication PageswscConference Proceedingsconference-collections
research-article

A hybrid epidemic model: combining the advantages of agent-based and equation-based approaches

Published: 09 December 2007 Publication History

Abstract

Agent-based models (ABMs) are powerful in describing structured epidemiological processes involving human behavior and local interaction. The joint behavior of the agents can be very complex and tracking the behavior requires a disciplined approach. At the same time, equation-based models (EBMs) can be more tractable and allow for at least partial analytical insight. However, inadequate representation of the detailed population structure can lead to spurious results, especially when the epidemic process is beginning and individual variation is critical. In this paper, we demonstrate an approach that combines the two modeling paradigms and introduces a hybrid model that starts as agent-based and switches to equation-based after the number of infected individuals is large enough to support a population-averaged approach. This hybrid model can dramatically save computational times and, more fundamentally, allows for the mathematical analysis of emerging structures generated by the ABM.

References

[1]
Anderson RM, May RM (1991) New York: Oxford University Press. Infectious Diseases of Humans: Dynamics and Control.
[2]
Baroyan OV, Mironov GA, Rvachev LA. (1981) An algorithm modeling global epidemics of mutant origin. Programming and Comput Software 6: (5)272--277. English translation from Programmirovanie, 5: 73--79 (1980) (in Russian)
[3]
Brinkhoff T (2005) Mato Grosso City Population. Retrieved from http://www.citypopulation.de/Brazil-MatoGrosso.html
[4]
Colizza V, Barrat A, Barthélemy M, Vespignani A. (2006a) The role of the airline transportation network in the prediction and predictability of global epidemics. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 103: (7)2015--2020.
[5]
Colizza V, Barrat A, Barthélemy M, Vespignani A. (2006b) The modeling of global epidemics: Stochastic dynamics and predictability. Bull Math Biol 68: 1893--1921.
[6]
Colizza V, Barrat A, Barthelemy M, Valleron AJ, Vespignani A. (2007) Modeling the worldwide spread of pandemic influenza: Baseline case and containment interventions. PLoS Med 4: (1)e13.
[7]
Cooper BS, Pitman RJ, Edmunds WJ, Gay NJ. (2006) Delaying the international spread of pandemic influenza. PLoS Med 3: (6)e212.
[8]
Epstein JM, Goedecke DM, Yu F, Morris RJ, Wagener DK, et al (2007) Controlling Pandemic Flu: The Value of International Air Travel Restrictions. PLoS ONE 2(5): e401.
[9]
Eubank S, Guclu H., Kumar V. S. A., Marathe M. V., Srinivasan A., Toroczkai Z, and Wang N. (2004) Modelling Disease Outbreaks in Realistic Urban Social Networks. Nature, 429: 180--184.
[10]
Ferguson NM, Cummings DAT, Cauchemez S, Fraser C, Riley S, et al. (2005) Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia. Nature 437: 209--214.
[11]
Ferguson NM, Cummings DAT, Fraser C, Cajka JC, Cooley PC, et al. (2006) Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic. Nature 442: 448--452.
[12]
Grais RF, Ellis JH, Glass GE. (2003) Assessing the impact of airline travel on the geographic spread of pandemic influenza. Eur J Epidemiol 18: 1065--1072.
[13]
Heckathorn D. D., (1997) Respondent-driven sampling: A new approach to the study of hidden populations, Social Problems 44 (1997), pp. 174--199
[14]
Helders S (2005) World Gazetter. Retrieved April 20, 2006 from http://www.world-gazetteer.com
[15]
Longini IM., Halloran ME., Nizam A. and Yang Y. Containing Pandemic Influenza with Antiviral Agents Am J Epidemiol 2004; 159:623--633.
[16]
Longini IM Jr, Nizam A, Xu S, Ungchusak K, Han-shaoworakul W, et al. (2005) Containing pandemic influenza at the source. Science 309: 1083--1087.
[17]
Mongabay. (2004) World Population Figures Retrieved April 24, 2006 from <http://population.mongabay.com>
[18]
Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects. (2004) World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision Population Database. Retrieved April, 2006 from <http://esa.un.org/unup>.
[19]
Population Division, U. S. Census Bureau. (2004) Table 1. Annual Estimates of the Population of Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Areas: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2004 (CBSA-EST2004-01). Retrieved April, 2006 from <http://www.census.gov/population/www/estimates/Estimates%20pages_final.html>.
[20]
Rahmandad, H. and J. D. Sterman. (2006). Hetergeneity and network structure in the dynamics of contagion: Comparing agent-based and differential equation models. Available at <http://filebox.vt.edu/users/hazhir/www/papers/Rahmandad-Sterman_070321.pdf>.
[21]
Riley S. (2007) Infectious Disease Large-Scale Spatial-Transmission Science 316, 1298;
[22]
Rvachev LA, Longini IM (1985) A mathematical model for the global spread of influenza. Math Biosci 75: 3--22.

Cited By

View all
  • (2020)Assessing the impact of targeted screening and treatment of diabetes and hypertension among adults living with HIV in Nairobi, KenyaProceedings of the Winter Simulation Conference10.5555/3466184.3466295(980-991)Online publication date: 14-Dec-2020
  • (2018)SIR-HawkesProceedings of the 2018 World Wide Web Conference10.1145/3178876.3186108(419-428)Online publication date: 10-Apr-2018
  • (2017)An agent-based model to investigate behavior impacts on vector-borne disease spreadProceedings of the 2017 Winter Simulation Conference10.5555/3242181.3242425(1-12)Online publication date: 3-Dec-2017
  • Show More Cited By

Recommendations

Comments

Information & Contributors

Information

Published In

cover image ACM Conferences
WSC '07: Proceedings of the 39th conference on Winter simulation: 40 years! The best is yet to come
December 2007
2659 pages
ISBN:1424413060

Sponsors

  • IIE: Institute of Industrial Engineers
  • INFORMS-SIM: Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences: Simulation Society
  • ASA: American Statistical Association
  • IEEE/SMC: Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers: Systems, Man, and Cybernetics Society
  • SIGSIM: ACM Special Interest Group on Simulation and Modeling
  • NIST: National Institute of Standards and Technology
  • (SCS): The Society for Modeling and Simulation International

Publisher

IEEE Press

Publication History

Published: 09 December 2007

Check for updates

Qualifiers

  • Research-article

Conference

WSC07
Sponsor:
  • IIE
  • INFORMS-SIM
  • ASA
  • IEEE/SMC
  • SIGSIM
  • NIST
  • (SCS)
WSC07: Winter Simulation Conference
December 9 - 12, 2007
Washington D.C.

Acceptance Rates

WSC '07 Paper Acceptance Rate 152 of 244 submissions, 62%;
Overall Acceptance Rate 3,413 of 5,075 submissions, 67%

Contributors

Other Metrics

Bibliometrics & Citations

Bibliometrics

Article Metrics

  • Downloads (Last 12 months)1
  • Downloads (Last 6 weeks)1
Reflects downloads up to 05 Mar 2025

Other Metrics

Citations

Cited By

View all
  • (2020)Assessing the impact of targeted screening and treatment of diabetes and hypertension among adults living with HIV in Nairobi, KenyaProceedings of the Winter Simulation Conference10.5555/3466184.3466295(980-991)Online publication date: 14-Dec-2020
  • (2018)SIR-HawkesProceedings of the 2018 World Wide Web Conference10.1145/3178876.3186108(419-428)Online publication date: 10-Apr-2018
  • (2017)An agent-based model to investigate behavior impacts on vector-borne disease spreadProceedings of the 2017 Winter Simulation Conference10.5555/3242181.3242425(1-12)Online publication date: 3-Dec-2017
  • (2017)Enhancing sustainability of complex epidemiological models through a generic multilevel agent-based approachProceedings of the 26th International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence10.5555/3171642.3171696(374-380)Online publication date: 19-Aug-2017
  • (2012)The impact of the power law exponent on the behavior of a dynamic epidemic type processProceedings of the twenty-fourth annual ACM symposium on Parallelism in algorithms and architectures10.1145/2312005.2312030(131-139)Online publication date: 25-Jun-2012
  • (2010)An exploration of the effects of maintenance manning on combat mission readiness utilizing agent based modelingProceedings of the Winter Simulation Conference10.5555/2433508.2433677(1376-1382)Online publication date: 5-Dec-2010
  • (2010)Epidemic marketplaceProceedings of the First international conference on Information technology in bio- and medical informatics10.5555/1885247.1885251(31-44)Online publication date: 1-Sep-2010
  • (2010)Reversible Parallel Discrete-Event Execution of Large-Scale Epidemic Outbreak ModelsProceedings of the 2010 IEEE Workshop on Principles of Advanced and Distributed Simulation10.1109/PADS.2010.5471657(106-113)Online publication date: 17-May-2010
  • (2009)Recursive simulation and experimental frame for multiscale simulationProceedings of the 2009 Summer Computer Simulation Conference10.5555/2349508.2349530(164-172)Online publication date: 13-Jul-2009

View Options

Login options

View options

PDF

View or Download as a PDF file.

PDF

eReader

View online with eReader.

eReader

Figures

Tables

Media

Share

Share

Share this Publication link

Share on social media