A stochastic equation-based model of the value of international air-travel restrictions for controlling pandemic flu
Pages 1538 - 1542
Abstract
International air travel can be an important contributing factor to the global spread of infectious diseases, as evidenced by the outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome in 2003. Restrictions on air travel may therefore be one response to attempt to control a widespread epidemic of a disease such as influenza. We present results from a stochastic, equation-based, global epidemic model which suggest that air travel restrictions often provide only a slight delay in the epidemic. This delay may give valuable time in which to implement other disease control strategies; however, if other strategies are not implemented, the use of travel restrictions alone may lead to a more severe epidemic than if they had not been imposed. Our results also indicate that the particular network of cities chosen for modeling can have a great influence on the model results.
References
[1]
Baroyan, O. V., G. A. Mironov, and L. A. Rvachev. 1981. An algorithm modeling global epidemics of mutant origin. Programming and Computer Software 6(5):272--277. English translation from Programmirovanie 5:73--79. 1980 (in Russian).
[2]
Brinkhoff, T. 2005. Mato Grosso City Population. Available via <http://www.citypopulation.de/Brazil-MatoGrosso.html>
[3]
Colizza, V., A. Barrat, M. Barthélemy, and A. Vespignani. 2006a. The role of the airline transportation network in the prediction and predictability of global epidemics. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the U. S. A. 103(7):2015--2020.
[4]
Colizza, V., A. Barrat, M. Barthélemy, and A. Vespignani. 2006b. The modeling of global epidemics: Stochastic dynamics and predictability. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology 68:1893--1921.
[5]
Colizza, V., A. Barrat, M. Barthelemy, A. J. Valleron, and A. Vespignani. 2007. Modeling the worldwide spread of pandemic influenza: Baseline case and containment interventions. PLoS Medicine 4(1):e13.
[6]
Cooper, B. S., R. J. Pitman, W. J. Edmunds, and N. J. Gay. 2006. Delaying the international spread of pandemic influenza. PLoS Medicine 3(6):e212.
[7]
Epstein, J. M., D. M. Goedecke, F. Yu, R. J. Morris, D. K. Wagener, and G. V. Bobashev. 2007. Controlling Pandemic Flu: The Value of International Air Travel Restrictions. PLoS ONE 2(5):e401.
[8]
ESRI. 2005. ArcGIS 9 World, Europe, Canada, and Mexico: 1996, 1998, Winter 1993/1994. {Computer software and data files 20000101, 2000, 20000225, 20010128, 20000612, 20020314, 20021115, 2000, 2003}. Redlands, CA: ESRI.
[9]
Eubank, S., H. Guclu, V. S. A. Kumar, M. V. Marathe, A. Srinivasan, Z. Toroczkai, and N. Wang. 2004. Modeling disease outbreaks in realistic urban social networks. Nature 429:180--184.
[10]
Ferguson, N. M., D. A. T. Cummings, S. Cauchemez, C. Fraser, S. Riley, A. Meeyai, S. Iamsirithaworn, and D. S. Burke. 2005. Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia. Nature 437:209--214.
[11]
Ferguson, N. M., D. A. T. Cummings, C. Fraser, J. C. Cajka, P. C. Cooley, and D. S. Burke. 2006. Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic. Nature 442:448--452.
[12]
Germann, T. C., K. Kadau, I. M. Longini Jr, C. A. Macken. 2006. Mitigation strategies for pandemic influenza in the United States. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the U. S. A. 103(15):5935--5940.
[13]
Grais, R. F., J. H. Ellis, and G. E. Glass. 2003. Assessing the impact of airline travel on the geographic spread of pandemic influenza. European Journal of Epidemiology. 18:1065--1072.
[14]
Grais, R. F., J. H. Ellis, A. Kress, and G. E. Glass. 2004. Modeling the spread of annual influenza epidemics in the U.S.: The potential role of air travel. Health Care Management Science 7:127--134.
[15]
Guimerà, R., S. Mossa, A. Turtschi, L. A. N. Amaral. 2005. The worldwide air transportation network: Anomalous centrality, community structure, and cities' global roles. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the U. S. A. 102(22):7794--7799.
[16]
Helders, S. 2005. World Gazetteer. Available via <http://www.world-gazetteer.com> {accessed April 20, 2006}.
[17]
Hufnagel, L., D. Brockmann, and T. Geisel. 2004. Forecast and control of epidemics in a globalized world. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the U. S. A. 101(42):15124--15129.
[18]
Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE). 2006. Available via <http://www.ibge.gov.br> {accessed April 20, 2006}.
[19]
Longini, Jr., I. M., A. Nizam, S. Xu, K. Ungchusak, W. Hanshaoworakul, D. A. T. Cummings, and M. E. Halloran. 2005. Containing pandemic influenza at the source. Science 309:1083--1087.
[20]
Mongabay.com. 2004. World Population Figures. Available via <http://population.mongabay.com> {accessed April 24, 2006}.
[21]
Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects. 2004. World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision Population Database. Available via <http://esa.un.org/unup> {accessed April, 2006}.
[22]
Population Division, U. S. Census Bureau. 2004. Table 1. Annual Estimates of the Population of Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Areas: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2004 (CBSA-EST2004-01). Available via <http://www.census.gov/population/www/estimates/Estimates%20pages_final.html> {accessed April, 2006}.
[23]
Rvachev, L. A., I. M. Longini, Jr. 1985. A mathematical model for the global spread of influenza. Mathematical Biosciences 75:3--22.
Recommendations
Controlling Co-Epidemics: Analysis of HIV and Tuberculosis Infection Dynamics
A co-epidemic arises when the spread of one infectious disease stimulates the spread of another infectious disease. Recently, this has happened with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and tuberculosis (TB). We develop two variants of a co-epidemic model ...
An econometric analysis of SARS and Avian Flu on international tourist arrivals to Asia
This paper compares the impacts of SARS and human deaths arising from Avian Flu on international tourist arrivals to Asia. The effects of SARS and human deaths from Avian Flu are compared directly according to the number of human deaths. The nature of ...
Comments
Information & Contributors
Information
Published In
Sponsors
- IIE: Institute of Industrial Engineers
- INFORMS-SIM: Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences: Simulation Society
- ASA: American Statistical Association
- IEEE/SMC: Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers: Systems, Man, and Cybernetics Society
- SIGSIM: ACM Special Interest Group on Simulation and Modeling
- NIST: National Institute of Standards and Technology
- (SCS): The Society for Modeling and Simulation International
Publisher
IEEE Press
Publication History
Published: 09 December 2007
Check for updates
Qualifiers
- Research-article
Conference
WSC07
Sponsor:
- IIE
- INFORMS-SIM
- ASA
- IEEE/SMC
- SIGSIM
- NIST
- (SCS)
Acceptance Rates
WSC '07 Paper Acceptance Rate 152 of 244 submissions, 62%;
Overall Acceptance Rate 3,413 of 5,075 submissions, 67%
Contributors
Other Metrics
Bibliometrics & Citations
Bibliometrics
Article Metrics
- 0Total Citations
- 133Total Downloads
- Downloads (Last 12 months)0
- Downloads (Last 6 weeks)0
Reflects downloads up to 05 Mar 2025
Other Metrics
Citations
View Options
Login options
Check if you have access through your login credentials or your institution to get full access on this article.
Sign in