Video Popularity Prediction by Sentiment Propagation via Implicit Network

Video popularity prediction plays a foundational role in many aspects of life, such as recommendation systems and investment consulting. Because of its technological and economic importance, this problem has been extensively studied for years. However, four constraints have limited most related works' usability. First, most feature oriented models are inadequate in the social media environment, because many videos are published with no specific content features, such as a strong cast or a famous script. Second, many studies assume that there is a linear correlation existing between view counts from early and later days, but this is not the case in every scenario. Third, numerous works just take view counts into consideration, but discount associated sentiments. Nevertheless, it is the public opinions that directly drive a video's final success/failure. Also, many related approaches rely on a network topology, but such topologies are unavailable in many situations. Here, we propose a Dual Sentimental Hawkes Process (DSHP) to cope with all the problems above. DSHP's innovations are reflected in three ways: (1) it breaks the "Linear Correlation" assumption, and implements Hawkes Process; (2) it reveals deeper factors that affect a video's popularity; and (3) it is topology free. We evaluate DSHP on four types of videos: Movies, TV Episodes, Music Videos, and Online News, and compare its performance against 6 widely used models, including Translation Model, Multiple Linear Regression, KNN Regression, ARMA, Reinforced Poisson Process, and Univariate Hawkes Process. Our model outperforms all of the others, which indicates a promising application prospect.